829 Merchants Rd

Rochester, NY 14609

$199,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,986 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $988/mo
• Annual: $11,860/yr
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.19%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $494/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $168k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.9% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,891/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 2183% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.