4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,354 sqft ·
Built 1940
· Other
· Active
· 39 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,128/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$116
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$237
Net cashflow
$-195/mo
Annual
$-2,336/yr
Cap rate
5.03%
Cash-on-cash
-4.51%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.61%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (18.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (39.0% below list).
It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $113k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#256 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Mexico 59 (town): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #229 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Eugene Field Elem. (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 424 students, 100% FRL); Mexico Middle (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #260 of 391 statewide, top 67%, 503 students, 100% FRL); Mexico High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 746 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 52% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 27 units permitted in Audrain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Audrain County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9YGQS3EVRDJ10K
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29