9100 Gary St

Fort Smith, AR 72903

$199,500F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,385 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $50/mo
• Annual: $600/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $55,860

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($600/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.6% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Smith School District (urban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #106 of 238 in AR (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John P. Woods Elem. School (math 64% / reading 61%, grade B, #30 of 454 statewide, top 6%, 487 students, 43% FRL); L. A. Chaffin Jr. High School (math 53% / reading 65%, grade B, #13 of 201 statewide, top 7%, 725 students, 54% FRL); Southside High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #31 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 1,956 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 64% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 37% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fort Smith School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 388 units permitted in Sebastian County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sebastian County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.3% in Fort Smith — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.