1379 Wrotham Ln

Channelview, TX 77530

$179,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,882/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $136/mo
• Annual: $1,628/yr
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Channelview ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #640 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.7% in Channelview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.