136 Ridge Cir

Ellisburg, NJ 08002

$395,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,516 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$796
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-278/mo
• Annual: $-3,335/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $395k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (17.0% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $328k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#60 in NJ, #1,517 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Cherry Hill School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #181 of 472 in NJ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Clara Barton Elementary School (math 12% / reading 54%, grade F, #650 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 473 students, 32% FRL); John A. Carusi Middle School (math 12% / reading 51%, grade F, #289 of 431 statewide, top 69%, 841 students, 29% FRL); Cherry Hill High School West (math 11% / reading 51%, grade F, #277 of 399 statewide, top 70%, 1,355 students, 24% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.