428 Frio Ln

Alamo, TX 78516

$475,000C-

8 bd · 7.2 ba · — sqft · Built 2025 · MultiFamily · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$792
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,039
• Net cashflow: $625/mo
• Annual: $7,497/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 2×2bd/1.8ba + 2×3bd/1.8ba units multifamily listed at $475k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $156/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $418k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Capt D Salinas Ii El (math 16% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 416 students, 96% FRL); Dora M Sauceda Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 660 students, 100% FRL); Donna North H S (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,539 of 1,632 statewide, top 95%, 2,091 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 48% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 349 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,946/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 476% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.