818 Bradford Ct

Lilburn, GA 30047

$399,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-529/mo
• Annual: $-6,350/yr
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.68%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-529 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (42.1% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $231k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camp Creek Elementary School (math 57% / reading 55%, grade C+, #165 of 1,228 statewide, top 14%, 1,338 students, 36% FRL); Trickum Middle School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 2,148 students, 52% FRL); Parkview High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 3,262 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 347 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.5% in Lilburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.