3701 Castle Pines Ln #3926

Oak Ridge, FL 32839

$100,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 2000 · Condo · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,685/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$364
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $263/mo
• Annual: $3,152/yr
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.69%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#115 in FL, #1,768 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millennia Gardens Elementary (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,061 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 873 students, 69% FRL); Lake Buena Vista High School (1,714 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $100k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.