3935 E Hickory St

Decatur, IL 62526

$82,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $957/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $255/mo
• Annual: $3,063/yr
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.26%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $23,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($957 rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.