126 Blue Springs Way

Simpsonville, SC 29680

$305,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,237 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-120/mo
• Annual: $-1,437/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in SC, #295 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Greenville 01 (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #10 of 80 in SC (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellen Woodside Elementary (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #224 of 597 statewide, top 38%, 1,020 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 42% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,595 units permitted in Greenville County in 2024 (566 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greenville County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Simpsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.