2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
952 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 68 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,856/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$299
Tax + insurance
−$95
HOA
−$554
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$518/mo
Annual
$6,220/yr
Cap rate
17.21%
Cash-on-cash
38.97%
DSCR
2.73
1% rule
3.26%
Cash to close
$15,960
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $57k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $57k).
It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $54k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Kitchen cabinets
— Worn appearance suggests minor wear and tear.
Minor: Kitchen countertops
— Dated appearance suggests minor wear and tear.
Minor: Kitchen appliances
— Basic appliances suggest minor wear and tear.
Minor: Bathroom fixtures
— Dated appearance suggests minor wear and tear.
CashFlowRE · CFR-A000QGAA7JFXPZ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29