11888 FM RD 2069

Seymour, TX 76380

$120,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,127 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 311 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $187/mo
• Annual: $2,248/yr
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.69%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#191 in TX, #4,884 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Seymour ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #195 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seymour El (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 277 students, 65% FRL); Seymour Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 190 students, 64% FRL); Seymour H S (math 74% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 177 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP.
• Baylor County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.5% in Seymour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.