30016 Holly Ct

Warren, MI 48092

$280,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,082 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,743/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$451
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-542/mo
• Annual: $-6,509/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.30%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-542 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (37.7% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Warren Consolidated Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #373 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lean Elementary School (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #980 of 1,397 statewide, top 74%, 558 students, 83% FRL); Beer Middle School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #359 of 493 statewide, top 73%, 745 students, 76% FRL); Warren Mott High School (math 12% / reading 40%, grade F, #474 of 713 statewide, top 66%, 1,385 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $280k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.