83 Chestnut St

Gardner, MA 01440

$474,900C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,745 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,339/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax + insurance: −$605
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,121
• Net cashflow: $1,123/mo
• Annual: $13,471/yr
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $132,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#61 in MA, #3,394 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Gardner (suburban): math 16% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #284 of 302 in MA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gardner Elementary School (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #689 of 938 statewide, top 74%, 986 students, 0% FRL); Gardner Middle School (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #249 of 305 statewide, top 82%, 489 students, 0% FRL); Gardner High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #305 of 343 statewide, top 89%, 804 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $475k implies a 277% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.6% in Gardner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,339/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 975% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.