2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
784 sqft ·
Built 1985
· Manufactured
· Active
· 70 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,001/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$362
Tax + insurance
−$115
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$210
Net cashflow
$314/mo
Annual
$3,769/yr
Cap rate
11.76%
Cash-on-cash
19.51%
DSCR
1.87
1% rule
1.45%
Cash to close
$19,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#34 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: commute D, employment D, amenities F.
St David Unified District (4173) (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #200 of 501 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 263 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.5% in Benson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Kitchen cabinets
— Worn appearance
Minor: Bathtub and sink
— Dated appearance
Moderate: Exterior siding
— Weathered and paint chipping
Moderate: Flooring
— Worn appearance
Moderate: Interior walls/paint
— Faded appearance
Moderate: HVAC unit
— Old appearance
CashFlowRE · CFR-A0VM2W5BZ39B0P
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29