720 Twin Pines Rd

Jersey, GA 30014

$174,999C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,775/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $221/mo
• Annual: $2,649/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#584 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton County (rural): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #31 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 677 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walton County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $97k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.3% in Jersey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.