4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,395 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 27 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,770/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,020
Tax + insurance
−$350
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$372
Net cashflow
$27/mo
Annual
$330/yr
Cap rate
6.46%
Cash-on-cash
0.61%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$54,488
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($330/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (9.1% below list).
It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $177k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Summit Hill El (358 students, 69% FRL); Howe Middle (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 292 students, 49% FRL); Howe H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 352 students, 41% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Howe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-A1813GF1X6ARQN
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29