239 Peebles Hill Rd

Oneonta, NY 13820

$395,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,673/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$691
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-1,441/mo
• Annual: $-17,291/yr
• Cap rate: 1.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.63%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (64.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (57.7% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($371k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (64.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#253 in NY, #4,021 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Oneonta City School District (town): math 46% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #374 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greater Plains Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 284 students, 40% FRL); Oneonta Middle School (math 28% / reading 56%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 378 students, 44% FRL); Oneonta Senior High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 502 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $395k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 5.5% in Oneonta — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.