Peak (Pin Oak) Plan

O'Fallon, MO 63368

$59,995B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 326 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$630
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $223/mo
• Annual: $2,677/yr
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.94%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 2.67%
• Cash to close: $16,799

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.1% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.