100 Fairway Park Blvd #207

Palm Valley, FL 32082

$163,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 469 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$249
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $174/mo
• Annual: $2,088/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $45,640

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $163k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#462 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ponte Vedra Palm Valley- Rawlings Elementary School (math 86% / reading 84%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,066 students, 11% FRL); Alice B. Landrum Middle School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A+, #14 of 571 statewide, top 2%, 1,142 students, 3% FRL); Ponte Vedra High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #19 of 667 statewide, top 3%, 1,928 students, 2% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.3% in Palm Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.