3011 Winding Trl

Matthews, NC 28105

$324,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,499/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-455/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $90,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-455/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#7 in NC, #863 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+.
• Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #85 of 178 in NC (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Matthews Elementary (math 59% / reading 57%, grade C+, #236 of 1,410 statewide, top 17%, 809 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 49% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,969 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (5,377 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at +53% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $240k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in Matthews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.