282 Gary Moore Rd

Ellsworth, ME 04605

$169,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,773/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $389/mo
• Annual: $4,671/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in ME, #3,210 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Ellsworth Public Schools (town): math 79% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #75 of 112 in ME (top 67%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Ellsworth Elementary-Middle School (math 79% / reading 86%, grade A+, #154 of 294 statewide, top 52%, 775 students, 36% FRL); Ellsworth High School (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #56 of 108 statewide, top 60%, 553 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 270 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hancock County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $169k implies a 322% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.3% in Ellsworth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.