3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 1930
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,412/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$362
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$296
Net cashflow
$-8/mo
Annual
$-91/yr
Cap rate
6.23%
Cash-on-cash
-0.23%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-91/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (0.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (2.7% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $141k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
York City SD (urban): math 4% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #534 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hannah Penn (math 0% / reading 9%, grade F, #1,516 of 1,518 statewide, top 100%, 679 students, 100% FRL); Edgar Fahs Smith Steam Academy (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #432 of 512 statewide, top 85%, 240 students, 100% FRL); William Penn Shs (math 22% / reading 8%, grade F, #407 of 437 statewide, top 94%, 1,534 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in York — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-A1T4A26XQKP93M
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29