1001 Northcliff Dr

Portland, TX 78374

$98,700B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,502/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$518
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,378/yr
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.22%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $27,636

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $682 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#36 in TX, #1,740 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $99k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.