62 Hummingbird Ln

Oceanside, CA 92057

$379,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,401/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (17.3% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $313k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#413 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: crime D, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• Oceanside Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #221 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nichols Elementary (511 students, 73% FRL); Martin Luther King Jr. Middle (1,182 students, 63% FRL); El Camino High (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #417 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 2,637 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 47% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Oceanside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.