Plan 1530 Plan

Rhome, TX 76078

$450,990F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,386 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 194 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,810
• Tax + insurance: −$893
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-1,733/mo
• Annual: $-20,799/yr
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.86%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $150,015

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $451k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (36.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (44.7% below list).
• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#165 in TX, #4,376 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 631 students, 54% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.7% in Rhome — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.