411 Watkins St

Elkhart, TX 75839

$59,500B+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 213 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $288/mo
• Annual: $3,460/yr
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.77%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $16,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($966 rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($411 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#750 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elkhart ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #153 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anderson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 1.5% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.