556 Main St

Aurora, NY 13026

$469,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,972 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,464
• Tax + insurance: −$824
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$878
• Net cashflow: $16/mo
• Annual: $189/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $131,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($189/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $418k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $414k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#530 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southern Cayuga Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $132k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.