21471 NW 172nd Rd

High Springs, FL 32643

$150,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $746/mo
• Annual: $8,957/yr
• Cap rate: 12.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.33%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#506 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $150k implies a 329% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.0% in High Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.