373 Magnolia Ave S

Waynesboro, VA 22980

$249,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,345 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Pending · 443 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-91/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-91/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#155 in VA, #4,902 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Waynesboro City Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #108 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westwood Hills Elementary (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 384 students, 87% FRL); Kate Collins Middle (math 28% / reading 57%, grade D-, #291 of 342 statewide, top 86%, 644 students, 86% FRL); Waynesboro High (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 905 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 50% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 138 units permitted in Waynesboro city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waynesboro County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $250k implies a 363% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Waynesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.