3493 Pine River Rd

Standish, MI 48658

$100,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $338/mo
• Annual: $4,052/yr
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.47%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#366 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Standish-Sterling Community Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #168 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Standishsterling Central Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 636 students, 67% FRL); Standishsterling Central Jrsr High School (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #154 of 713 statewide, top 25%, 694 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.