2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1925
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 122 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,030/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$354
Tax + insurance
−$72
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$216
Net cashflow
$387/mo
Annual
$4,646/yr
Cap rate
13.18%
Cash-on-cash
24.58%
DSCR
2.09
1% rule
1.53%
Cash to close
$18,900
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($467 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#613 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
Bloomingdale Public School District (rural): math 13% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #475 of 540 in MI (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
27 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.3% in Bloomingdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-A4YYA1693M23NP
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29