433 Chicago Ave

Lower Burrell, PA 15068

$90,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,551/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $502/mo
• Annual: $6,029/yr
• Cap rate: 13.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.09%
• DSCR: 2.21
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#360 in PA, #3,154 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Burrell SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #257 of 539 in PA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bon Air El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 497 students, 43% FRL); Charles A Huston Ms (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #307 of 512 statewide, top 61%, 416 students, 40% FRL); Burrell Hs (math 67%, 579 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 415 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westmoreland County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.