3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,423 sqft ·
Built 2015
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,010/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$310
HOA
−$13
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$422
Net cashflow
$-229/mo
Annual
$-2,749/yr
Cap rate
5.33%
Cash-on-cash
-3.44%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (14.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (29.5% below list).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $201k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#48 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, crime D-.
Springdale School District (urban): math 38% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #100 of 238 in AR (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hunt Elementary School (math 71% / reading 59%, grade B+, #22 of 454 statewide, top 5%, 842 students, 55% FRL); Hellstern Middle School (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #17 of 201 statewide, top 8%, 781 students, 43% FRL); Har-Ber High School (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #115 of 292 statewide, top 40%, 2,274 students, 53% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Springdale School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Springdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-A5DGWT282FWWS6
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29