1409 N Church St

Marceline, MO 64658

$165,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,790/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (37.6% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#96 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Marceline R-V (rural): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walt Disney Elem. (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #98 of 1,115 statewide, top 10%, 319 students, 47% FRL); Marceline Middle (math 72% / reading 57%, grade A-, #5 of 391 statewide, top 2%, 135 students, 42% FRL); Marceline High (math 42% / reading 64%, grade C-, #86 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 204 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.