1711 Chesterfield Dr

Carrollton, TX 75007

$345,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,069 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,775/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$688
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-305/mo
• Annual: $-3,662/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $96,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $278k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#54 in TX, #2,159 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: commute F.
• Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #518 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis El (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 518 students, 82% FRL); Blalack Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 888 students, 53% FRL); Creekview H S (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,610 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $345k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.