1230 Earlville Rd

Earlville, NY 13332

$179,500D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,732 sqft · Built 1830 · SingleFamily · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-321/mo
• Annual: $-3,855/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.67%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $50,260

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#967 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sherburne-Earlville Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherburne-Earlville Elementary School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,505 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 629 students, 32% FRL); Sherburne-Earlville Middle School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 299 students, 65% FRL); Sherburne-Earlville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 336 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sherburne-Earlville Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $180k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?