2113 Pickerton Dr

Deer Park, TX 77536

$162,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-316/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $45,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $162k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-316/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carpenter El (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 847 students, 60% FRL); Bonnette J H (math 44% / reading 41%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 724 students, 58% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.