3447 Redbud Grv

San Antonio, TX 78264

$154,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,184/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Freedom El (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 562 students, 93% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.