3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,224 sqft ·
Built 1902
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,272/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$466
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$267
Net cashflow
$281/mo
Annual
$3,375/yr
Cap rate
10.09%
Cash-on-cash
13.56%
DSCR
1.60
1% rule
1.43%
Cash to close
$24,892
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Maple Avenue School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 397 students, 72% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 8.1% in Niagara Falls — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: exterior siding
— Weathered and faded
Moderate: exterior paint
— Faded and uneven
CashFlowRE · CFR-A6W08R1J6G41JA
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29