1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,135 sqft ·
Built 1980
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 683 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,012/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$98
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$213
Net cashflow
$-33/mo
Annual
$-398/yr
Cap rate
6.01%
Cash-on-cash
-1.02%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$39,200
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-398/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (4.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (27.7% below list).
It's been on market 683 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $101k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#214 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Kirkland Elementary District (4480) (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #255 of 501 in AZ (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Kirkland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #548 of 1,109 statewide, top 51%, 76 students, 75% FRL).
Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $2k; list at $140k implies a 6000% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 683 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29