15706 Dorset Rd #158

Laurel, MD 20707

$219,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Pending · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$389
• HOA: −$518
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-202/mo
• Annual: $-2,425/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (16.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#26 in MD, #945 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Scotchtown Hills Elementary (math 4% / reading 19%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 612 students, 76% FRL); Dwight D. Eisenhower Middle (math 3% / reading 20%, grade F, #205 of 225 statewide, top 92%, 1,084 students, 84% FRL); Laurel High (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #159 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 2,134 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 53% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Laurel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?