515 Abbotts Mill Dr

Johns Creek, GA 30097

$415,000F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 1999 · Townhouse · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,617/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-674/mo
• Annual: $-8,090/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (37.0% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $262k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#187 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Creek Elementary School (math 78% / reading 80%, grade A, #17 of 1,228 statewide, top 1%, 795 students, 10% FRL); River Trail Middle School (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #7 of 470 statewide, top 1%, 1,088 students, 9% FRL); Northview High School (math 77% / reading 50%, grade B-, #9 of 424 statewide, top 2%, 1,674 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fulton County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 284 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Johns Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.