104 Kelsey Dr

Bristol, TN 37620

$169,000B+

None bd · 4.0 ba · 2,376 sqft · Built 1968 · MultiFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,467/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $1,505/mo
• Annual: $18,056/yr
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.16%
• DSCR: 2.70
• 1% rule: 2.05%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $752/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#24 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol (urban): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #29 of 139 in TN (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holston View Elementary (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #60 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 301 students, 0% FRL); Tennessee High School (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #75 of 332 statewide, top 24%, 1,154 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $169k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,467/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 724% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.