370 Chili St

Olive Hill, KY 41164

$99,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2000 · Other · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,020/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$593
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-311/mo
• Annual: $-3,732/yr
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (45.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $977 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#160 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Olive Hill Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 381 students, 65% FRL); West Carter Middle School (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #112 of 217 statewide, top 53%, 366 students, 65% FRL); West Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 522 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $100k implies a 566% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in Olive Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.