5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,480 sqft ·
Built 2022
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 82 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,596/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,861
Tax + insurance
−$264
HOA
−$42
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$545
Net cashflow
$-116/mo
Annual
$-1,396/yr
Cap rate
5.90%
Cash-on-cash
-1.40%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$99,372
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (5.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (26.9% below list).
It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $260k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#26 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Rockwell Elementary School (math 46% / reading 76%, grade B, #60 of 627 statewide, top 9%, 724 students, 25% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Spanish Fort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AA05YF8TYFGWT7
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29