4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,104 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 122 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,169/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,662
Tax + insurance
−$528
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$455
Net cashflow
$-477/mo
Annual
$-5,726/yr
Cap rate
4.49%
Cash-on-cash
-6.45%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$88,757
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-477 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (21.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (31.6% below list).
It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AA6EBNFWDE21RV
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29