3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,650 sqft ·
Built 2024
· Townhouse
· Active
· 68 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,585/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,411
Tax + insurance
−$282
HOA
−$295
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$543
Net cashflow
$54/mo
Annual
$653/yr
Cap rate
6.54%
Cash-on-cash
0.87%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$75,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $269k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($653/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (3.9% below list).
It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $253k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#177 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Belville Elementary (math 51% / reading 49%, grade D+, #409 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 726 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Leland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AAC06J8ASJ2RBM
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29