2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,025 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Condo
· Active
· 118 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,637/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$358
HOA
−$596
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$554
Net cashflow
$212/mo
Annual
$2,541/yr
Cap rate
8.20%
Cash-on-cash
6.81%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.51%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#586 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 771 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,637/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 980% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
CashFlowRE · CFR-AB1M8T2HQTY7FZ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29