2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,020 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Manufactured
· Active
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,580/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$362
Tax + insurance
−$56
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$830/mo
Annual
$9,965/yr
Cap rate
20.74%
Cash-on-cash
51.58%
DSCR
3.29
1% rule
2.29%
Cash to close
$19,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $830 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $6k; list at $69k implies a 1050% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ABRVKE0GAVTYTR
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29